New US trailer orders of 18.6k were up 4% month-over-month, but after accounting for cancellations, net orders slid to 14.7k units, down 6% from March. Year-to-date, net orders are 37% below last year, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report. Near-record backlogs have filled 2019 build slots for many OEMs, and there continues to be some resistance toward booking orders into next year, resulting in the modest order volumes.
In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that the overall economic picture remains largely unchanged, with growth moderating in 2019 from last year’s vigorous pace. The trade war with China, which had been put on the back burner earlier this year, was put back on high heat at the beginning of this month. The report provides monthly analysis on transportation trends, equipment markets, and the economy.
According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, Class 8 retail sales and build remain at cycle highs, but signs are multiplying that the market momentum will start declining during the second half of this year. At the same time, net trailer orders in March were the weakest order volume since July of 2017, as many OEMs continue to be unwilling to fully open 2020 orderboards.
ACT’s preliminary estimate for April 2019 net trailer orders is 14,500 units. Final volume will be available later this month. Our methodology allows us to generate a preliminary estimate of the market that should be within +/- 3% of the final order tally.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Report, April’s Class 8 metrics generally aligned with expectations, with the lone exception of cancellations, which continued to trend lower.
Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) fell 5% month-over-month in April, following an uptick in March, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research. Additionally, the report indicated that longer-term comparisons yielded a 13% decline compared to April 2018, as well as a year-to-date drop of 16%.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, slower freight growth, an easing of driver supply constraints, the resumption of the long-run freight productivity trend, and strong Class 8 tractor fleet growth will increasingly pressure rates and by extension, trucker profitability in 2019.
COLUMBUS, IN – ACT Research released the May installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.
ACT has been involved in the freight sector for decades, but for the past year we have been investing time and energy in developing the ACT's Freight Forecast report. The report analyzes data from around the freight sector, focusing on the links between the equipment manufacturing side of the equation and freight rates. The report is for any transportation stakeholder who needs to understand where rates are heading, when and why. With help from all members of the ACT team, we have built a model that forecasts the future of freight rates using ACT's historical data on truck production, our TL and LTL Carrier databases, as well as key leading indicators developed for this report.
The report addresses the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal sectors of the freight market, all targeted at understanding of future rates. As the report has been developed, we've tested and refined the outputs to provide the best possible information to help businesses make informed decisions. Over the past year we’ve built a freight model using several regression and population models all working together, which drives our contract rate and volume forecasts. For our spot rate forecasts though, we use a separate model based on our Spot Leading Indicator, which was developed over a year ago.
- February 2018 Outlook Report: “Did the spot market just peak? Spot Leading Indicator predicts 25%-30% y/y increases through March/April, down from 31% in February and 32% in January.”