ACT Research: August 2019 Trailer Industry Preliminary Net Orders Up Fractionally from July as OEMs post 10,500 Units for the Month but Trail Last Year by more than 72%

ACT’s preliminary estimate for August 2019 net trailer orders is 10,500 units. Final volume will be available later this month.

This preliminary market estimate should be within +/- 3% of the final order tally.

Trailer Prelim Graph 9-19-19“On the positive side, total orders were up 7% versus July. However, cancellations pulled the net order results down to a 2% sequential gain. Indications were that cancels were highest in the industry’s core product categories, dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds, indicating fleets and dealers are still reassessing their true equipment needs for the remainder of this year,” said Frank Maly, ACT’s Director of CV Transportation Analysis and Research.

Considering normal seasonal patterns along with the widespread opening of 2020 orderboards, a more significant sequential order improvement would have been expected. Maly added, “On a seasonally adjusted basis, net orders actually declined 14% from July. That indicates market pressures of economic uncertainty, lower freight volumes and rates, as well as tariff concerns, are all causing fleets to closely assess their investment plans and very cautiously extend their commitments into next year.” Although some order improvement should occur in upcoming months, the pace may well be slower than historic order patterns would predict. Additionally, production rates increased versus July, so when the shrinking orderboard is taken into account, the total industry backlog-to-build horizon remained in mid-January for the second consecutive month.

animation (45)ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics and appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

CLICK HERE for more information about ACT’s State of the Industry: US Trailer Report.

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