According to the recent release of ACT Research’s China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, the Chinese commercial vehicle market has been reacting to the domestic and global surges of COVID, long-term pressures of market restructuring and new emissions regulations.
Domestic demand for heavy trucks fell more than 50% y/y, while the tractor market shrank almost 67% y/y and domestic demand for medium-duty trucks dropped 46% compared to the first quarter of 2021. The weakness continues into the second quarter, with the trough being late in the quarter. Slow recovery is expected throughout the second half of 2022.
With too many trucks chasing available freight, there was little improvement in freight rates, which restrained vehicle purchase demand. Previous emissions upgrade policies that generated prebuy demand have now resulted in a natural lull. Some support for new vehicle sales was a result of good performance from export markets.
This quarter’s commercial vehicle bright spot came from the large and medium bus market, reporting a mere 2% y/y contraction. That segment’s demand is supported by the country’s move toward the use of alternative fuels, particularly BEVs, for passenger movement, but in Q1 this was set against a backdrop of stunted passenger demand resulting from continuing COVID outbreaks.
The China CV OUTLOOK, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly by-OEM wholesale data, alternative fuels market shares by CV application, market share percentages, industrial policy impacts, and an overview of the competitive landscape.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23-25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/.
ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.
Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
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