In the second half of 2019, amid the China-US trade war and deceleration of China’s real estate market, the economy is expected to slow, with estimated GDP growth dropping to 6.2% in Q3’19 and 6.1% in Q4’19. The domestic demand for heavy trucks fell nearly 29% y/y, while the tractor segment increased almost 30%, and demand for medium trucks ended 2019’s second quarter down 41% compared to Q2’18.
China’s economy is likely to give less support to the heavy and medium truck markets, despite the government’s efforts to ensure steady economic growth. Additionally, structural changes, such as GB1589, modal shifts, and the removal of NSIII vehicles, within China’s CV markets are expected to exert downward pressure through 2023.
The China CV OUTLOOK, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly wholesale data, alternative fuels by CV application, market share percentage, industrial policy impacts, and competitive landscape.
ACT Research anticipates that, in the next five years, policies regarding commercial vehicles in China will focus on environmental improvement and safety, noting that while this will promote product updates and technology shifts, it should not cause the large market fluctuations experienced in 2016 and 2017.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 62nd seminar is scheduled for February 11-13, 2020, and will feature trucker, electrification, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of electrification on the market in the near future. A commercial vehicle database workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event. Click here for seminar information.
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