ACT Research: 2021’s Commercial Vehicle Challenge Is Production Potential

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that the question of commercial vehicle demand for 2021 has been answered, but the remaining question is the industry’s ability to meet that level of demand.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

This year’s challenge is to ascertain the impact of supply constraints on 2021’s production potential, and the two numbers that get to the heart of identifying the near-term production ramp are units-per-day and days-per-period,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “The timing of a 100 units-per-day swing from assumption to reality can still have a material impact on full-year output.”

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Vieth elaborated, “Additionally, there is a third, hidden factor that is likely to come into play at some point in the coming months: the completion of ‘red-tagged’ units [those units that are essentially built, but unfinished and waiting for parts]. Based on anecdotal conversations, we would put the current number of red-tagged units at around 5,000 units industry-wide.” He concluded, “Given demand conditions, we reiterate that when the inflection comes, it will be exceedingly sharp, and that’s why we’re advising our clients to be prepared.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

What’s coming next in 2021 and 2022? ACT’s 65th OUTLOOK Seminar is the planning event for your business needs. Mark your calendar for August 24-26, 2021 to gain market updates and forecasts from ACT’s award-winning, veteran team with more than 200 years of combined industry experience. Click here for more details.

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published in early April, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here.

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