In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that freight-generating sectors of the US economy are on the cusp of transitioning from contraction to growth, aligning with freight cycles of the past, which typically last around two years.
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.
“With the current cycle dating from Q4’18, we have entered the sixth quarter of what is typically an eight-quarter process,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “While there could be some turbulence surrounding the election, we would note that only once in the 2000s has a freight-cycle trough persisted beyond two years. Similar to data relating to the industrial economy, we are seeing modestly positive and less negative datapoints starting in Q4, and we note that ‘less-bad’ is always the first step in any recovery.”
Vieth also spoke about factors expected to drive the commercial vehicle segment in the next two years, “There are three elements at work in the weak outlook for heavy commercial vehicles in the coming few years: demand, supply, and timing. While some, like the oversupply of equipment, have been on the radar for a long time, others, like the weakness exhibited in key freight-generating economic sectors like manufacturing, came on slowly and inexorably over several months.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 62nd seminar is scheduled for February 11-13, 2020, and will feature trucker, electrification, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of electrification on the market in the near future. A commercial vehicle database workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event.