ACT Research: HD Forecasts Are Very Strong, with US Economy Continuing Positive and Robust

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that its heavy-duty forecasts for the remainder of this year and the following two years remain very strong.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

“Indicators we track for the economy, for freight, and for equipment utilization are about as good as we have ever seen,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “US economic activity continues positive and robust, and we expect real GDP growth in 2021 to sprint ahead by 6.5% and by 5.9% in 2022. In the out-years, real GDP is projected to return to its longer-run pace of approximately 2%. Transportation and freight will shine in this environment.”

Used 72921Vieth elaborated, “Indeed, with the economy reopening and a semblance of normalcy returning, the near-term outlook is particularly robust. However, even if all goes well, pockets of the economy will still be hobbled by the unique circumstances of this recession and recovery cycle. Some factors may slow the economy’s forward momentum temporarily, but are not likely to cause a reversal in direction.” He added, “That said, we’ve been reporting for some time that the commercial vehicle market situation is not one of customer demand, but rather of OEM production constraints. Semiconductor, steel, resins, and port bottlenecks represent just some of the constraints impacting the commercial vehicle supply chain. Dislocations should ease in coming months as the industry adjusts and supply channels improve, but we note that supply constraints in 2021 have been especially sticky.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at

What’s coming next in 2021 and 2022? ACT’s 65th OUTLOOK Seminar is the planning event for your business needs. Mark your calendar for August 24-26, 2021 to gain market updates and forecasts from ACT’s award-winning, veteran team with more than 200 years of combined industry experience. Click here for more details. 

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here. 

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