ACT Research: Perfect Storm of Positives Causes Sharp Upgrades in CV Expectations Since May

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that an unforeseen robustness of the perfect storm of positives into late spring and summer, following the initial shock of COVID-19 shutdowns and other mitigation efforts, has resulted in sharp upgrades in commercial vehicle expectations since May.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

CV DD Graphic 9-25-20

“There have been a number of factors that have contributed to significantly better freight outcomes, in spite of the dramatic economic downturn that continues to negatively impact significant swaths of the US economy. One of the biggest surprises is illustrated by real personal consumption,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Since consumers couldn’t spend on experiences like vacations, sporting events and concerts, they put that money to work buying goods: Summer vacation doesn’t fit into a truck, but stuff does.”

9_28_20

Specifically regarding how the CV industry is doing, Vieth commented, “On top of the consistent roll-out of good economic numbers from consumer activity, the sustained rally to record highs in dry van truckload spot rates reflects the sizeable piece of the driver supply that was sidelined in April. The resulting rise in carrier profits bodes well for commercial vehicle demand. Even in the face of significant parked capacity right now, a case can be made for a steady, if historically modest, Class 8 market rebound from here.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

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