Preliminary used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) increased 20% month-over-month, but were 25% lower compared to December of 2021, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for December 2022, which showed that average retail price and miles declined 1% and 4%, respectively, while average age declined 1% from November’s readings. Compared to December of 2021, the average retail price and miles declined by 3%, while age increased by 2%.
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “The economy, freight market, and even the commercial vehicle (CV) industry are sprinkled with bits of data that suggest the situation might be better than some originally envisioned. December used truck volumes are one of those data points.” He continued, “History suggests sales usually tick in at year end, but the 20% m/m increase was more than three times the typical growth rate. Despite all of the downside projections floating around today, there is still solid demand for used trucks of all vintages. Supply also seems to be increasing, thanks to better new truck sales.”
Tam concluded, “Demand has cooled to the point that prices will continue to come down. And they are running smack dab into the toughest comparisons they have ever faced. The ride is going to be a rough one, but when the industry comes out of the other end of the cycle, we believe prices will bottom above the low point of the previous cycle’s trough. Then it will be off to the races as the cycle resets.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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