ACT Research: Downturn Forecasts Fine-Tuned, Anticipating Inbound Recession

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported shifts—both higher and lower adjustments (but in aggregate, lower still)—in forecasts last month to incorporate an inbound recession.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

ACT Seminar 56_60According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “We have tweaked our economic forecasts slightly lower. 2023 GDP remains unchanged at 0.0%, but our expectations for 2022 slip 20bps to 1.4%.Elaborating on the macro impact to commercial vehicle forecasts, he said, “There are some moving pieces here, with a higher 2022 forecast, but lower 2023. The higher 2022 forecast largely reflects better-than-expected June build and slightly higher near-term expectations, as supply-chain constraints moderate and the OEMs work to sate pent-up demand.” Vieth continued, “To that general commentary, the combination of falling freight rates, higher operating costs, rising interest rates and falling used equipment valuations are likely to be adding turbulence to the market as we move into 2023.”

Transportation ImageHe concluded, “While we are marking our forecast down, 2023 is still projected to be a very good year, just not as good as we were expecting as tailwinds are blowing less hard amid rising headwinds.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 68th Seminar is scheduled for February 21-23, 2022. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event. When details are available, they may be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.

Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.

Click here for more information about ACT’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest.

Click here for information about other ACT Research publications and services.

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