According to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine OUTLOOK, published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates, engines over 10L accounted for 87% of Class 8 production in 2019 because of the high demand for tractors in the peak-cycle year. Demand for under 10L engines, used mostly in trucks, was softer last year. Additionally, the report noted that emission impacts in 2024 will benefit smaller/under 10L engines that are forecast to be about 16% of the market.
The NA On-Highway Engine OUTLOOK published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates highlights power-source activity for commercial vehicle GVWs 5-8, including five-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends. The Engine Outlook ties to the detailed NA CV vehicle forecasts published monthly by ACT in the NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK. This report benefits businesses and manufacturers in the commercial vehicle engine production supply chain, and any company following the investment value of engine OEMs and their suppliers.
Andrew Wrobel, Global Market Intelligence Commercial Vehicle and Off-Highway Forecasts of Rhein Associates, commented, “It is anticipated that trucks will increase use of smaller displacement engines, while the forecast predicts a gradual reduction in favor of the 12-14L category for use in tractors, as opposed to the over 14L category. We expect the 12-14L engine segment to dominate in tractor-use demand by 2024.” Regarding Classes 5-7, Wrobel said, “In this market, the current metric of interest is gasoline penetration, which continue s to gain share, and is forecast to hit nearly 24% of the market by 2024.”
Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, noted, “North America’s Class 8 truck and tractor production had a banner year in 2019, with tractor production up more than 4% year-over-year and truck build nearly 9% above 2018’s year-end total.” He added, “The vehicle, or more accurately, the application of the vehicle directly correlates to the type of engine needed.” Vieth elaborated, “That said, the EPA and CARB are both working on regulatory initiatives to address NOx emissions from heavy duty on-road trucks, which could result in different engine purchase patterns, including a potential switch to alternative fueled engines/electric power, in the out-years of our forecasts.”
Rhein Associates is a leader in North American commercial vehicle and off-highway powertrain forecasting. Rhein Associates is renowned for providing the industry with accurate, thorough and relevant databases, analysis and insight, by analysts that are involved and connected in the industry. Our data covers both on-road commercial vehicle as well as the off-highway, marine, industrial, agricultural and electrification sectors. Rhein Associates produces three major publications: The Rhein Report (leading monthly newsletter), The Future of Diesel Engines (5-year history and forecast), and various global engine, transmission databases for commercial vehicle and off-highway. http://www.rheinassociates.com/
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the 2019 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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