ACT Research: Constraints Restrain 2021 CV Expectations

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the demand story for commercial vehicles remains unchanged this year, but the supply chain’s ability to respond to demand will be the key determinant of Class 8 and van trailer production in 2021.

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

Used 12_16_2020-3According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “With orders remaining hot through preliminary February reporting from ACT, backlogs and backlog-to-build ratios continuing to rise, as well as new vehicle inventories tightening, the problem isn’t demand, but supply.”

He continued, “To no small extent, it appears that the more traditional early-cycle ramping pains, like tires, assorted cast parts, and wiring harnesses, are taking a backseat to more cycle-specific constraints, which begin with the simultaneous global ramp in economic activity overlaid with pandemic-specific challenges.” Vieth concluded, “Demand is so strong for Class 8 and trailers that 2021 build slots are rapidly selling out. In addition, and despite a strong backlog for the Classes 5-7 segment, there is a very real consideration that medium duty output may be deprioritized in favor of demand for Class 8 vehicles, as OEMs grapple with supply chain constraints.

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, is due to publish March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, go to actresearch.net/cv-electrification-study-2021.

What’s coming next in 2021 and 2022? ACT’s 65th OUTLOOK Seminar is the planning event for your business needs. Mark your calendar for August 24-26, 2021 to gain market updates and forecasts from ACT’s award-winning, veteran team with more than 200 years of combined industry experience. Stay tuned for more information or go to actresearch.net/seminar65 for more details.

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