According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, at 128 months, the current US economic expansion is the longest on record, surpassing the previous cycle record (1992-2001) by eight months and counting. And with solid consumer fundamentals, no obvious imbalances, and already having weathered the manufacturing downturn to date, it is harder to see a recession now than it was six months ago.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
“Starting with the caveat “exogenous events,” our outlook calls for an uninterrupted economic expansion through the five-year forecast horizon,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborated, “While the economic cycle is presently at a low ebb, signs of any step-downs from here are moderating. While there are datapoints that remain negative, industrial production was still contracting as recently as December; others are suggesting the bottom is passing.” Vieth added, “With key freight-generating sectors of the economy starting to mend, we are reminded that freight cycle troughs tend to last around two years. With the current cycle dating from Q4’18, we have entered the sixth quarter of what is typically an eight-quarter process. We would note that only once in the 2000s has a freight-cycle trough persisted beyond two years, 2007-2009.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters.