Since early 2018, ACT Research’s forecasts have called for the up-cycle in the Class 8 market to run out of steam around the third quarter of 2019, according to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the commercial vehicle industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and the investment community the information they need for planning in a deeply cyclical industry. The report provides a complete overview of North American CV markets, taking a deep dive into relevant demand drivers, pivoting on current market activity (from orders and backlogs to production and sales), before arriving at unit forecasts for different CV vehicle classes. Information included in this report covers medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, information on carrier profitability trends, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
“Over the past couple of quarters, we have been beating the drum loudly so that our customers could be as well positioned as possible for when the downturn in industry activity inevitably occurred,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborated, “Starting around six weeks ago, we began to see announcements of staffing reductions and plant shutdowns from OEMs, as well as from major tier-one suppliers. Anecdotes suggest the lower tiers on the supply chain have experienced production volumes cuts since early in September.”
Regarding heavy vehicle demand, Vieth noted, “Two metrics of note this month were the continued pulldown of the Class 8 backlogs, owing to ongoing order weakness, and a fourth consecutive month of record new truck inventories.” He added, “From a net freight perspective (freight less productivity), growth falls from 4% in 2018 to 0.2% in 2019, as productivity has risen with a vengeance in response to the sharp run-up in freight rates in 2018.”
Regarding ACT’s medium duty forecasts, Vieth said, “In the near term (2019), there remains a bit of upward pressure on production, though it started abating in July. Based on the accumulation of inventory, we expect further slowing in medium duty build as the year progresses, a sentiment echoed by recent OEM layoff and production curtailment announcements.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 62nd seminar is scheduled for February 11-13, 2020, and will feature trucker, electrification, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of electrification on the market in the near future. A commercial vehicle database workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event.
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