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ACT Research: Heavy Duty Markets at the Edge of the Precipice

Posted by Jennifer McNealy on Aug 16, 2019 12:19:55 PM

According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, current data and anecdotes make a strong case that the heavy duty vehicle markets are at the edge of the precipice.

ACT Seminar_92“Since the start of this demand up-cycle in late 2017, we have targeted this year’s third quarter as the point at which the industry was likely to see production rollover,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborated, “That targeting was largely derived from historical precedent, with historical peak-level build lasting between 13 and 15 months. For the current cycle, we date peak build rates to June 2018, so August represents the 15th month of peak-level production.”

Net Freight from OUT 8-9-19Regarding heavy vehicle demand, Vieth noted, “At the heart of our cycle duration prediction, carrier profitability and production peaks always lag the freight cycle, so capacity building always accelerates relative to freight growth at exactly the wrong time, every time.” He added, “Large new inventories and deteriorating freight and rate conditions suggest erring on the side of caution remains the right call, and we are warning those in the industry to be prepared for down weeks starting as early as Q4.”

Regarding ACT’s medium duty forecasts, Vieth said, “Retail sales are tracking the medium duty forecast very well, but 2019 expectations were moderately increased, and owing to order dynamics, our 2020 sales forecast has been reduced.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

For more information about ACT’s NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, click here.

Topics: freight, transportation, logistics, shipping, Classes 5-8, NA CV OUTLOOK, Press Releases

About ACT Research

We're the leading publisher of industry data, market analysis, and economic forecasting services for the commercial vehicle and transportation industries.

2019 Lawrence R. Klein Award Winner: Most Accurate Economic Forecast 2015-2019

  Partner to LMC Automotive and the Chinese State Information Center

  Contributor to the Blue Chip Financial and Wall Street Journal Consensus Economic Forecast


 

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