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ACT Research: Key Risk to N.A. CV Market Forecasts Is Trade War with China

Posted by Jennifer McNealy on Aug 19, 2019 8:00:00 AM

According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the key risk to all commercial vehicle market forecasts remains the on-again trade war with China.

China.US.Exchange Rate 8-9-19-1“This month’s chart, the US$ to Chinese¥ (RMB), illustrates why trade wars are neither good, nor easy to win,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborated, “As can be seen, after the US fired the latest salvo in the trade war on August 1, the Chinese responded with in-kind tariffs and a 3% currency devaluation – so far. Since the first ‘shots’ of the trade war were fired on March 1, 2018, the RMB has fallen 12% versus the US$.”

ACT Seminar_84Vieth added, “So, tariffs imposed by the US have been met with in-kind tariffs from China, and the Chinese government has allowed the yuan to devalue, thereby offsetting the US tariff impact, while simultaneously making US goods even more expensive in China.” He concluded, “The bigger risk, especially to emerging economies is that in order to compete with China, they will have to devalue their currencies, making US goods more expensive in more countries and raising the risk of a deeper global downturn.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

For more information about ACT’s NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, click here.

Topics: freight, transportation, Classes 5-8, Economy, NA CV OUTLOOK, Press Releases, Regulations

About ACT Research

We're the leading publisher of industry data, market analysis, and economic forecasting services for the commercial vehicle and transportation industries.

2019 Lawrence R. Klein Award Winner: Most Accurate Economic Forecast 2015-2019

  Partner to LMC Automotive and the Chinese State Information Center

  Contributor to the Blue Chip Financial and Wall Street Journal Consensus Economic Forecast


 

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