According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the key risk to all commercial vehicle market forecasts remains the on-again trade war with China, but well-positioned consumers are keeping the US economy out of the ditch.
“Aside from trade, the economic picture remains largely unchanged, with growth moderating in 2019 from last year’s vigorous pace,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He elaborated, “The key risk to all vehicle market forecasts remains the on-again, on-again trade war with China. If the President doubles-down from here, a greater global downturn could ensue, with the worst outcomes spreading beyond the impact of tariffs and into a global race to the bottom in terms of currency manipulation.”
Vieth added, “Another move from this point would substantively increase the likelihood of a recession sometime in 2020. ACT’s recession probability in the next 4-6 quarters has risen to 40%, up from 25% earlier this year.” He concluded, “With US manufacturers and farmers struggling to compete on the tilted global playing field, the key driver of the near to mid-term outlook is the US consumer, who remains well positioned to keep the economy out of the ditch, even as key freight generating sectors of the economy take a pause. Jobs and wage growth and savings are all at healthy levels, supporting consumer confidence.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics and appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.