According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the primary risk to all vehicle market forecasts, and the US economy broadly, in either direction, remains the trade war with China. With US manufacturers and farmers struggling to compete on the tilted global playing field, the key driver of growth in the mid-term outlook is the US consumer, who remains well positioned to keep the economy out of the ditch.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.
“With around 80% of North America’s Class 8 market and about 90% of the Classes 5-7 and trailer markets beholden to the US economy, it is little wonder that ACT’s forecasts focus heavily on the North American, and primarily the US, economy,” said Steve Tam, ACT’s Vice President. He elaborated, “We are seeing weaker-than-expected activity in the economies of Canada and Mexico and our US growth expectations, at 2.2%, are now below start-of-the-year levels. Looking to 2020, GDP growth in all three North American economies is anticipated to fall below 2%, with the US and Canada at 1.7% and Mexico rebounding to 1.4%.”
Regarding the trade war and risk of a recession, Tam commented, “If the President doubles down from here, a greater global downturn could ensue, with the worst outcomes spreading beyond the impact of tariffs and into a global currency war. If Schedule D tariffs are put in place in December, the likelihood of recession rises.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 62nd seminar is scheduled for February 11-13, 2020, and will feature trucker, electrification, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of electrification on the market in the near future. A commercial vehicle database workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event. Click here for seminar information.