Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) rose 11% month-over-month in December, and are 25% higher year-to-date compared to 2019, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research. Compared to December of 2019, volumes gained 27%.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for December 2020, which showed that average prices increased 2%, while average miles dropped 1% and average age was 1% higher, compared to November. Year-to-date, average price, miles, and age were all lower, down 8%, 4%, and 8%, respectively, compared to full-year 2019.
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Months before COVID reared its ugly head, we were expecting the cooling that started mid-year in 2019 to continue into 2020. The market was overheated and in need of a much-deserved breather.” He continued, “While we are not yet officially forecasting used truck values, we called for full-year pricing to be down between 5% and 10%. December’s preliminary reading of -8% falls squarely in that range.”
Tam added, “Pricing improved year-over-year in all three channels, with a restrained gain in the retail market keeping a lid on growth, while auction and wholesale prices surged. Miles and age continue to support higher pricing, falling 8% and 9%, respectively, compared to 2019.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 64th Seminar is scheduled for February 23-25, 2021. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of power and energy changes in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 64 will feature key industry leaders such as Ryan Reed of Wabash National, John Bennett from Meritor, Lance Riegel of Marvin Johnson, and Dominick Beckman from Hino Motors. Look for more details on this event over the coming months and save the date for February’s event. Click here for seminar information.
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