Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) dropped 2% month-over-month, but rose 51% y/y in April. Through the first four months of the year, activity is 29% higher compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for April 2021, which showed that average prices increased 5%, as average miles were unchanged and age grew 1% compared to March. Compared to COVID-impacted April of 2020, average price was 45% higher, with average miles 3% lower y/y and average age down 4%. On a year-to-date basis, average price is 30% above its year-ago level for the first four months of 2020.
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “New truck production and sales continue to conspire to reduce the flow of units into the secondary market, limiting its potential.” He continued, “Comments from dealers as well as classified listings, a proxy for inventory, corroborate the lack of supply that has come to define the current cycle, and the drumbeat of demand shows no signs of easing. As a result, used truck sales prices continue to escalate, with overall Class 8 prices jumping 45% from April 2020.”
Tam recapped the past year’s activity by saying, “A year ago, staring down the throat of the worst global pandemic in more than a century, who would have thought the discussion would pivot to how we can possibly meet such strong global demand. And yet, here we are, facing problems of prosperity, the likes of which we have rarely seen in the US. From synchronized global growth, to rapidly rising raw material costs and finished goods prices, to COVID-driven labor shortages, consumption and output are in an uproar. COVID-19 has become the catalyst that is both the protagonist and the antagonist in this bizarre tale. As such, it stands to reason that the path of the recovery will be dictated by the disease itself.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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