Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) dropped 14% month-over-month, but rose 46% y/y in May. Through the first five months of the year, activity is 32% higher compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for May 2021, which showed that average prices increased 5%, as average miles and age grew 2% and 3%, respectively, compared to April. Compared to COVID-impacted May of 2020, average price was 52% higher, with average miles 2% lower y/y and average age flat. On a year-to-date basis, average price is 33% above its year-ago level for the first five months of 2020, with average miles and age both 4% lower year-to-date.
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “US GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs.” He continued, “It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential.”
Tam added, “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.” He also noted, “In the near term, miles and age crept up, but longer-term, used trucks hitting the market are generally younger with fewer miles. This is also a contributing factor to higher prices.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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