According to this quarter’s issue of ACT Research’s Trailer Components Report, trailer industry net orders continued the year-over-year slide that begin at the end of 2018, now negative for seven consecutive months, with preliminary July data showing that trend continuing. However, the report also notes that manufacturers continue to produce trailers at near-record levels.
“Through June, trailer net orders are down more than 43% year-over-year, and the orderboard horizon has remained in the November/December timeframe this entire year,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. He continued, “Additionally, fleets were clamoring to order additional trailers earlier this year for 2019 delivery, frustrated by a lack of available production slots and OEMs’ unwillingness to accept orders for 2020.” Additionally, Maly said, “After the early-year enthusiasm, the recent opening of OEM orderboards has been met with a dramatically lackluster response by fleets, catching most OEMs by surprise. And, high cancellations have also churned industry backlogs for the latter part of the year, indicating that 2019 may well close weakly and provide little support for the beginning of 2020.”
Maly also noted, “Despite the dramatic order weakness, OEMs continue to produce at near-record levels, and lacking any turnaround in order volume as the year closes, OEMs could reduce those rates further, attempting to stretch existing backlogs until the fleet order pace rebounds.”
Regarding trailer components specifically, the report stated that while some component issues have caused higher red-tag/incomplete issues in late 2018 and early 2019, there has been less mention of component challenges as this year has progressed. Maly added, “The potential impact of tariffs is the only possible headwind to relatively benign component constraints occurring mid-year.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Executive staff appointments include a seat on the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics and Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council. Accolades include Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.