ACT Research: CV Industry’s Ability to Meet Demand Still Impacted by Supply-Chain Constraints

According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report, Russia/China supply-chain disruptions, raging inflation, higher interest rates, and recession potential continue to dominate the narrative.

The battle against inflation is global.  US inflation continues to accelerate, prompting the Fed to lift the Fed Funds rate 75 basis points this week, the largest increase since 1994, and markets and economists are increasingly predicting a US recession in 2023." - Eric Crawford

ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.

According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, “Russian commodities remain locked out of Western markets, Ukraine remains besieged, and China continues to struggle with COVID and lockdowns.” He added, “The battle against inflation is global. US inflation continues to accelerate, prompting the Fed to lift the Fed Funds rate 75 basis points this week, the largest increase since 1994, and markets and economists are increasingly predicting a US recession in 2023.” When asked what this all means for commercial vehicle markets, Crawford explained, “While Classes 5-8 production exceeded lowered expectations in May and build plans were largely unchanged, supply-chain risks remain elevated. Moreover, we believe the likelihood of a US economic recession is growing and probability of a mild recession is now about as likely as that of our base-case scenario.”

Regarding commercial vehicle segment production and orders, Crawford commented, “Backlogs remain long and order volumes remain constrained. Until build rates find additional traction, orders will largely mirror production levels, but the steep decline in truckload spot rates ex-fuel in recent months will soon impact vehicle demand.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23-25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/.

ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.

Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.

Click below to:

Access more information about ACT’s Classes 5-8 reports.

Access information about other ACT Research publications.

Access June's State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles Preliminary Press Release.

Access May's State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles Press Release.

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