According to this quarter’s issue of ACT Research’s Trailer Components Report, with only a portion of the 2023 US trailer orderboards open and 2022 production slots full in aggregate, backlog-to-build ratios for the industry already stretch well into 2023.
ACT Research’s U.S. New Trailer Components and Materials Forecast provides those in the trailer production supply chain, as well as those who invest in said suppliers and commodities, with forecast quantities of components and raw materials required to support the trailer forecast for the coming five years. It includes near-term quarterly predictions for two years, while the latter three years of the forecast are shown in annual details. Additionally, analysis is segmented into two categories: those needed for the structural composition of new trailers and those used in the production of undercarriage assembly.
“Until orderboards are opened deeper into next year, we expect orders and production to travel in lockstep. That said, demand remains strong, despite increased pricing, and cancellations, although ticking upward, are insignificant, as fleets in queue need the equipment and plan to stay in queue until orders are converted to deliveries,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director-CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “When more 2023 production slots become available, we anticipate a surge of orders to be ‘officially’ accepted.”
According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President, Senior Analyst, “Demand remains strong. But, as is the case with all things cyclical, we do not believe current strength is likely to last through 2023, as we now forecast a mild recession.” He continued, “Inflation continues to impact OEMS. Difficulty in projecting part and material prices has made it difficult for manufacturers to set firm prices for trailers currently on order.” When asked about build plan projections, he added, “they’ve changed significantly over the past three months. For 2022, easing supply-chain disruptions and still-strong demand have led us to increase our total US trailer build forecast. That said, higher interest rates and our view that a recession is inbound have led us to reduce our 2023 and 2024 forecasts.”
Crawford concluded, “With supply and demand out of sync, and expected to remain there for the near-to-medium term, there is little incentive for a fleet to leave the order board when they already have a committed production slot. While build slot and pricing might not be as firm as fleets would prefer, it’s better than being on the outside looking in.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23-25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/.
ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.
Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
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