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ACT Research: Class 8 Regression to the Mean Coming in 2020

Posted by Jennifer McNealy on Oct 25, 2019 12:13:29 PM

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, the Class 8 market is moving from 2019 peak activity in sales and build into a substantial correction in 2020. Activity for the total MD market was jumbled in August, confirming the dichotomy of the various facets of the industry.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look into transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

animation (84)“With a major trade caveat, our underlying view is that the economy will have slower growth but not recession, so the heavy duty truck market rebounds and enjoys three years of growth from 2021 to 2023. However, the far years of this forecast are influenced by the prospect of stringent emission controls in 2024, triggering a 2023 prebuy, followed by a 2024 payback,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “This regression-to-the-mean for 2020, after near-record production in 2019, has been our forecast since early 2018, so shouldn’t surprise our subscribers.”

Regarding the medium duty market, Denoyer commented, “On one hand, customers are confirming their concern about the near-term future, as exemplified by the continuing pullback in order activity. On the other hand, customers also continue to purchase new vehicles at near-record rates. This dynamic is set to change in 2020, with significantly lower sales and production but a good prospect of improvement off current low order rates.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at

ACT’s 62nd seminar is scheduled for February 11-13, 2020, and will feature trucker, electrification, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of electrification on the market in the near future. A commercial vehicle database workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event.


Click below to: 

Access seminar information.

Access information about ACT’s Transportation Digest.

Access more information about additional ACT’s Transportation Publications and Services, click here.

Access September's Transportation Digest Press Release. 

Access In the News Page 

Topics: Press Releases, class 8 trucks, medium duty truck, commercial vehicle sales data, truck market, north american trucking, class 8 truck, american truck and trailer, commercial truck and trailer, transportation industry news, trucking, heavy duty truck

About ACT Research

We're the leading publisher of industry data, market analysis, and economic forecasting services for the commercial vehicle and transportation industries.

2019 Lawrence R. Klein Award Winner: Most Accurate Economic Forecast 2015-2019

  Partner to LMC Automotive and the Chinese State Information Center

  Contributor to the Blue Chip Financial and Wall Street Journal Consensus Economic Forecast


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