According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, key truck transportation metrics now available of January and February data, including ACT’s For-Hire Survey results, may be showing a global supply chain disruption that took place initially in China. That said, the report notes that data are not yet reflecting the COVID-19 impact on the North American commercial vehicle markets or fully showing the supply chain disruptions that have now spread around the world.
The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis of a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look into transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.
“COVID-19 has taken center stage since February, and has engendered a reality of significant human tragedy, as well as concerns about a substantial weakening in the global economic outlook,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He added, “In such an environment, economic information will take the ‘back seat,’ as pre-COVID datapoints fall outside of the context of the new reality. Given the slow dawning of the impact, we would put most March datapoints on the pre-COVID side of the ledger.”
Vieth continued, “Although not official yet, we believe that the US economy entered a recessionary phase starting in March, and with much still unknown about the virus’ effect and the path that recovery could take, assessments remain fluid. ACT continues to evaluate our baseline scenarios for North America, but our current modeling indicates significant economic weakness though Q2 and into Q3, with CV market demand following.” Additionally, he indicated that beyond spending on consumer services, manufacturing, retail, housing, energy, travel and related services, including freight transport, are the most vulnerable industries.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 63rd seminar is scheduled for August 11-13, 2020, and will feature dealer, alternative power, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of alternative power on the market in the near future.
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