ACT Research: CV Industry Supply Constraints Lead ACT Research to Cut Forecasts

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, North America’s commercial vehicle industry is experiencing material capacity constraints that are dictating the speed at which the industry can produce for the rest of this year and next.

The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.

Used 9.27.21“Panic is not much of an overstatement for everyone involved in the motor vehicle supply chain these days. From early-stage fabrication of components to the buyers of new trucks, the universal sentiment is ‘it’s just crazy out there’,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “For heavy trucks, no less than for medium and light vehicles, procuring supplies to manufacture products has become the top management priority. As capacity constraints became increasingly severe during the middle months of 2021, COVID unfortunately roared back with its Delta variant adding another challenge in this already challenging environment.”

Vieth added, “For NA heavy truck, the result has been sizable gaps between build plans and actual production, especially in June and July, and prospectively in the months ahead. And if the factory can’t build, then the dealers can’t sell.” He concluded, “ACT has certainly rolled back heavy-duty truck forecasts in the past. But that was when the economy weakened and freight declined. The supply-chain crisis has created a unique situation, a major forecast haircut in a period of ripping demand. The sizeable forecast reductions of the past two months are unprecedented -- especially considering that 2021 is more than half in the books. In a period of a recovering economy, government stimulus, strong freight and record freight rates, rising vehicle backlogs and falling inventories, the usual bearings and landmarks we use to guide a forecast don’t work. At least for 2021 and certainly into early 2022, the forecast is determined by supply considerations, rather than by what demand dictates.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here. 

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