According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, forecast stability this year has been driven by three factors: major positive momentum carried-over from 2020, the struggle of manufacturers to push production even higher in the face of record heavy organic truck demand, and the benefit of vaccinations reversing the daunting upward climb in new COVID cases.
The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.
“Indicators we track for the economy, for freight, and for equipment utilization are about as good as we have ever seen, but recent data flows from the last six weeks or so suggest that the near continuous upward sweep of activity over the last few quarters may be beginning to level,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “To be clear: we are not forecasting a roller coaster descent from the top. Indeed, all you have to do is look at our forecast for the next two years – modest expansion, and basically sustained freight volumes at historically high levels.”
Vieth concluded, “What we are saying is that the upward push of the heavy-duty market is in transition, from expansion to stability at high levels. The rate of change will get close to zero. Said another way, the market should bump along at a peak that over time should become a high plateau.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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