ACT Research: CV Supply Constraints, Not Demand, Dictating Lower Production Forecasts

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, near-term signs of demand remain strong, while supply constraints dictate that ACT Research’s forecasts for the next year remain under pressure.

The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.

Used 10.27.21 (1)“For heavy trucks, no less than for medium and light vehicles, procuring supplies and assembling product has become a top management priority,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “The struggles of manufacturers, particularly with semiconductors, were typified in an OEM press release on October 4. What holds for that particular OEM is true for all makers of heavy-duty trucks in North America. Indeed, it applies across all vehicle classes and global geographies.” Vieth explained further, “The semiconductor problem has become more acute as we have progressed through this year, and appears set to hobble the industry well into 2022 – and perhaps even beyond. And semiconductors and electrical assemblies are not the only components experiencing either capacity shortages or rapidly escalating prices, or both.”

Vieth concluded by sharing his thoughts about how this impacts future CV production, “ACT has rolled back heavy duty truck forecasts in the past. But that was when the economy weakened and freight declined. This circumstance is unique, a forecast haircut when demand is strong, customers are increasingly eager to obtain trucks, and backlogs are rising. With still-healthy demand, our focus is on supply constraints, inflation, and production issues, because they are the levers that will dictate market direction in the next few quarters.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22-24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders such as Bryan Bezold of Ford, Matt Hardin from Transplace, and Robert Brown of TuSimple. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, as it becomes available, click here. 

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here. 

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