ACT Research: Same Six Key Themes That Shaped 2021 CV Markets Set To Impact 2022 As Well

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, the six key themes that shaped the North American commercial vehicle markets in 2021 will continue to do so in 2022, and likely beyond.

The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macro economy.

“Supply, not demand, will continue to dictate unit volumes for vehicles in the short-term, even as capital goods investment is seeing an upside breakout, generating higher freight volumes.”  - Kenny Vieth“The factors impacting the market start and end with COVID and its emerging variants,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Supply, not demand, will continue to dictate unit volumes for vehicles in the short-term, even as capital goods investment is seeing an upside breakout, generating higher freight volumes.” Vieth further noted, “As has been the case through the pandemic, we continue to see consumers spending on goods at the expense of services, helping to support freight markets, though we do expect consumer spending to start the process of reverting to traditional patterns post Omicron. Inflation is expected to remain elevated, but positively we are seeing second derivative improvements in the monthly data. Finally, the chip shortage, while an ongoing and major problem, is expected to improve through 2022 as new silicon capacity comes online.”

When asked about market fundamentals, Vieth explained, “The top line on the ACT Research Tractor Dashboard in November stayed level with the October reading, in strong double-digit territory at +11. Of the 15 variables in the Dashboard, 11 were positive, with 4 neutral, and no negatives.” He concluded, “The take-away message is that market fundamentals continue to be historically strong, and are likely to stay that way deep into 2022.”

Tractor Dashboard 1-24-21

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22-24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders from Ford, Transplace, TuSimple, and the EPA, with more being added to the agenda. February’s event features three panels (US Economics, Trucker & Transportation, and Autonomous Ecosystem), as well as a fireside chat with the EPA, discussions about fleet decarbonization, electric vehicle forecasts, and reviews of freight/transportation, Class 8, Classes 5-7, the US used truck and new US trailer markets. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, click here. 

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here

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