According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, Class 8 retail sales and build are starting the summer at near-record high levels, but evidence supporting a change in direction continues to accumulate. At the same time, the medium duty market was a study of contrasts in April, even as new trailer orders fell to a nearly two-year low.
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis across a wide variety of industry sources to paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and commercial vehicle markets, also suggests that the US economy will decelerate from the 2018 tax-cut-boosted vigorous growth of 2.9% to a real GDP forecast average of 2.4% this year and slightly below 2% next year.
“The key message that has dominated our Class 8 outlook remains unchanged: The heavy-duty market is now at the inflection point we have been anticipating, and signs of decline will become apparent as we move through 2019’s second half,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Regarding other commercial vehicle segments, we saw medium duty build and sales falter sequentially in April, though longer-term comparisons remained positive, with orders growing month-over-month, but remaining below build rates in the longer term. Trailer volumes continued to be uninspiring in April, with new orders down 6% sequentially.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 61st seminar is scheduled for August 12-14, 2019, and will feature a dealer panel, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the impacts of tomorrow’s technical challenges. A global forecasting workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event. Click here for seminar information.