July net US trailer orders of 8,128 units fell nearly 26% from the previous month, and were almost 58% lower compared to July of 2020. Before accounting for cancellations, new orders of 9.5k units were down more than 27% versus June, and 53% lower than the previous July, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report. YTD, net orders for the first half of 2021 were up more than 75%, while new orders grew about 52% compared to the COVID-stricken beginning of 2020.
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
“With significant reluctance to accept further orders in the high-volume dry van and reefer categories, the timing of ‘officially’ opening 2022 orderbooks is a major question for the industry,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. He continued, “How coordinated the timing of that opening by the OEMs is a second major question. While order volumes have remained low, there is no question that negotiations have continued. Once orders are again accepted, expect a flood that could consume a significant portion of the remaining 2022 production slots.”
Maly added, “The unknown there is how quickly OEMs will be able to ramp production, which will correspondingly impact their pace of order acceptance. We already have orderboards that extend into Q2’22 on average. For reference, remember the order surge that occurred in late 2018, which immediately pushed commitments through Q3 of the next year. A similar pattern could well be in the offing. Of course, pricing, which is still under development, will also have a major impact on that order pace.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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