ACT Research: US Used Truck Prices Expected to Continue Climbing Near Term

ACT Research: US Used Truck Prices Expected to Continue Climbing Near TermPreliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) decreased 3% month-over-month and dropped 24% y/y in October. That said, through the first 10 months of the year, activity is 4% higher compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.

Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for October 2021, which showed that average prices rose 3%, as average miles and age gained 1% each compared to September. Compared to October of 2020, average price was 67% higher, with average miles and age greater by 3% and 5%, respectively. On a year-to-date basis, average price is 48% above its year-ago level for the first 10 months of 2020, with average miles down 2% and age unchanged on a year-to-date basis.

ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.

According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Despite preliminary same dealer sales slipping into contraction territory on a month-over-month basis, the unusual, on a seasonal basis, sequential softness held no sway over the longer-term year-to-date comparison, which edged higher.” He elaborated, “The industry’s ability to outpace 2020, albeit by a small margin, is nothing short of miraculous, given all the challenges used truck sellers have faced this year. In the context of the lowest level of inventory the industry has probably ever seen, dealers have pulled out all the stops in an effort to provide buyers with as many units as humanly possible.”

Tam continued, “However, since dealers are still not able to meet the voracious demand, used truck prices continued on their upward trek in October.” He concluded, “Given the dynamics of underlying fundamentals, namely freight and freight-hauling capacity, prices are likely to continue climbing higher in the near term.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

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ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here

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