Preliminary used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) decreased 22% month-over-month and dropped 23% y/y in November. That said, through the first 11 months of the year, activity is 10% higher compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for November 2021, which showed that average prices rose 11%, as average miles dropped 3% compared to October. Average age was flat m/m. Compared to November of 2020, average price was 69% higher, with average miles and age greater by 3% and 8%, respectively. On a year-to-date basis, average price is 40% above its year-ago level for the first 11 months of 2020, with average miles unchanged and age up 1% on a year-to-date basis.
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Preliminary same dealer sales moved deeper into negative territory in November.” He elaborated, “Historically, the sequential decline in November was very characteristic, as November is the second weakest sales month of the year.”
Tam continued, “Despite the current softness, sales continue to outperform on a ytd basis, now 10% higher with just one month remaining in the year. Even though inventory is tight, it has not stopped flowing. New truck activity continues to feed the seemingly unsatiable demand from owner/operators and fleets alike.” He concluded, “As has been the case since late 2020, the industry’s inability to meet truckers’ equipment needs has resulted in unrelentless used truck price escalation. As we have posited for some time, increasingly difficult comparisons are shrinking long-term gains, and owing to expectations for more of the same as it relates to freight and equipment availability, prices are likely to continue climbing higher in the near term.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22-24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders from Ford, Transplace, TuSimple, and the EPA, with more being added to the agenda. February’s event features three panels (US Economics, Trucker & Transportation, and Autonomous Ecosystem), as well as a fireside chat with the EPA, discussions about fleet decarbonization, electric vehicle forecasts, and reviews of freight/transportation, Class 8, Classes 5-7, the US used truck and new US trailer markets. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, click here.
ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here.
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