According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were down 12% m/m. Average miles was up 2%, with average price and age both down 3%, m/m. Longer term, average price was higher y/y and ytd, as were average miles, with price up 20% ytd September, average miles 3% higher compared to the first nine months of 2021, and average age down 1% for the same time period.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
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“Same dealer retail sales of used Class 8 trucks fell in September, shedding 12% m/m,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “Used truck sales typically see a small decline in September, relative to August, but this drop exceeded expectations. As has been the case for the past several months, looking back at new truck production in the recent past has provided some meaningful insight into where used truck sales volumes may be headed in the near term.”
Tam added, “While July’s output lagged, it did not portend the magnitude of the pull back the used truck market eventually experienced in September. That suggests in addition to supply, demand factors may have been at work. That should not come as a surprise to anyone in the industry.” He concluded, “Worth noting is total used truck sales for September were actually 16% higher m/m. This is due to outsized auction activity (104% m/m), which is not unusual at quarter end. Rounding out the channels, wholesale transactions were 18% lower in September, relative to August, as dealers remain cautious about building inventory. Developments in the freight and freight rates market, and in particular the spot markets rather than the contract market, remain the best near-term indicator of not only used truck volumes, but also values.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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