According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were 15% lower month-over-month. Longer term, volumes were down 16% y/y, but up 11% ytd. Average prices were 12% higher compared to October, 68% more expensive than in November of 2020, and 38% greater ytd. Average miles were 3% fewer m/m but up 2% y/y, while average age decreased 2% from October but was 5% older compared to November of 2020.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Used Class 8 same dealer retail sales volumes continued to struggle in November, extending their sequential decline to a second consecutive month,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The softness was in exact agreement with seasonal expectations, and whether that was a coincidence or not, dreary new truck sales are keeping a stranglehold on used truck inventory.”
Looking at the different sales channels for used Class 8 vehicles, Tam commented, “Near-term channel results were mixed, with auction sales growing 6% month-over-month, while wholesale activity fell by a similar amount. All three markets experienced lower volumes compared to November 2020. As has been the case so far this year, only the retail segment has improved.”
He added, “Looking ahead to next year, the underlying tenet of our outlook is moderate progress on the supply chain front. Assuming this, as well as our equally buoyant expectations for economic expansion and freight activity happen, used truck sales volumes should also come along for the ride.” Tam concluded, “Used truck prices will continue to benefit from strong demand and tight supply, though growth rates are likely to decline meaningfully, as freight hauling capacity rebalances. That said, it is important to note that prices will be retreating from record highs and are not expected to collapse, but rather revert in an orderly manner toward the mean.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22-24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders from Ford, Transplace, TuSimple, and the EPA, with more being added to the agenda. February’s event features three panels (US Economics, Trucker & Transportation, and Autonomous Ecosystem), as well as a fireside chat with the EPA, discussions about fleet decarbonization, electric vehicle forecasts, and reviews of freight/transportation, Class 8, Classes 5-7, the US used truck and new US trailer markets. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, click here.
ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here.
Click below to: