According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were 1% higher month-over-month. Longer term, volumes dropped 44% y/y and were 34% lower ytd. Average price and miles were down 6% and 1%, respectively, compared to May, but average age rose 5% m/m. Longer term, average price was higher y/y and ytd, as were average miles and age, with price up 74% ytd June, average miles 3% higher compared to the first six months of 2021, and average age 6% older for the same time period.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Same dealer retail sales of used Class 8 trucks held almost steady in June,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “The gain is smaller than expected, at least as far as typical seasonality is concerned. Normally, volumes are about 5% larger in June, relative to May. In the grand scheme, June sales are very average, meaning almost no seasonal adjustment is necessary to account for buying habits and/or patterns.”
Tam added, “However, seasonality is not the over-arching driver of volumes in the current market. The picture is much more dependent upon what is happening in the economy, freight markets, and with new truck production and sales. Clearly, there are concerns in the economy that have direct implications on the used truck market. As the economy and freight begin to cool from their torrid pace over the past two years, it is logical and expected to see demand for commercial vehicles, both new and used, slow.” He concluded, “However, demand is not all about what is happening today. As new and used truck buyers were denied access to equipment because of the supply-chain crunch, they were forced to extend their trade cycles and age their fleets. While this is a short-term tactic, it is a situation that needs to be rectified. It is that replacement of older trucks that will sustain the industry through the trough of the current cycle.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 67th Seminar is scheduled for August 23-25, 2022. The focus will be the potential impact of decarbonization and autonomous technology on commercial vehicles and on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations, as well as featuring guest speakers to dive into topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. The agenda includes key industry leaders, who will be announced at a later date. For more information about Seminar 67 Watts Under The Hood: Transportation Transformation, click here: https://www.actresearch.net/seminar-67/.
ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.
Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.
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