ACT Research: Used Class 8 Retail Sales Volumes Open 2022 Lower; Prices Continue to Increase

According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were 15% lower month-over-month. Longer term, volumes were down 37% y/y. Average prices were 7% higher compared to December, and 83% more expensive than in January of 2021. Average miles rose 2% m/m and 4% y/y, while average age was flat compared to December, but up 6% compared to last January.

The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.

Used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) were 15% lower m/m. Longer term, volumes were down 37% y/y.  - Steve Tam“Used Class 8 same dealer retail sales volumes dwindled further in January. The sequential drop was the fifth straight decline, while sales have been weaker for the past seven months,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “It is worth noting that sales typically fall in January and the magnitude of the drop aligned with expectations. Interestingly, the slowing in the secondary market belies recent developments in the new truck market.”

Looking at the different sales channels for used Class 8 vehicles, Tam commented, “Near-term channel results moved in the same direction, but to widely varying degrees, with auction sales falling 86% m/m, while wholesale activity slipped just 10%. All three markets also experienced lower volumes compared to January 2021.”

He added, “We believe that the industry will make progress clearing some of the supply-chain hurdles, allowing for moderate improvements in new truck production. The higher output should help increase the flow of equipment into the secondary market, helping to boost sales volume and alleviate some of the rampant price appreciation the market experienced in 2020 and 2021.” Tam concluded, “Used truck prices will continue to benefit from strong demand and tight supply, though growth rates are likely to decline meaningfully, as freight hauling capacity rebalances, and it is important to note that prices will be retreating from record highs and are not expected to collapse, but rather revert in an orderly manner toward the mean.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT Research recently completed POWER UP, a look at 7 global regions and more than 20 countries in a review of local regulations, infrastructure, and the impact on the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles through 2040. This forecast is the first of its kind, a review of the decarbonization of commercial vehicles around the world. POWER UP is available now at https://www.actresearch.net/power-up/.

Additionally, ACT Research published an update to CHARGING FORWARD, a North American-centric battery and fuel cell electric vehicle adoption rate forecast, covering 23 vehicle applications, in Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, through 2040. CHARGING FORWARD is considered by many industry leaders to be the apex of analysis and economic-based total cost of ownership modeling in the industry. And, it is now available for purchase at https://www.actresearch.net/electric-vehicles-charge/.

Currently, the team at ACT Research is engaged in a commercial autonomous vehicle multi-client study. Through this work, we will identify adoption rates and forecast autonomous Classes 4-8 vehicles through 2040. If you’re working to understand the economic value proposition or the unit economics of different autonomous models, participation in this study is a must. Learn more at https://www.actresearch.net/autonomous-cv/.

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