According to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) were 4% lower month-over-month. Longer term, volumes were down 18% y/y, but up 13% ytd. Average prices were 3% less compared to June, but 46% more expensive than in July of 2020, while average miles were 5% higher m/m and unchanged y/y. Average age was up 3% from June, but down 1% compared to July of 2020.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Used Class 8 same dealer sales volumes continued to fight an uphill battle in July, slipping 4% compared to June. Historically, sales in June and July are pretty similar, so the decline was a little bigger than expected,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “At the heart of the issue is used truck inventory, which continues to lose traction. Underscoring the point, sales were also down year over year. On a positive note, they remained in positive territory year-to-date, albeit at a declining margin.”
Looking at the different sales channels for used Class 8 vehicles, Tam commented, “Channel results were also mixed, with the wholesale and retail segments in decline in the near term. All three outlets saw lower volumes compared to July 2020. Through the first seven months of the year, both the auction and wholesale markets are still in decline.”
He added, “Industry participants, particularly dealers, are beginning to express concerns about the protracted, strong cycle and asking when prices will start to decline. While we do no formally forecast used truck prices, we believe that pricing will remain robust, that is, higher year over year, into Q2’22.” Tam concluded, “Perhaps more salient is that we view the catalyst for change as an orderly attainment of equilibrium between supply and demand, rather than a flood of inventory that could collapse the market. It is also important to keep in mind that when prices do start to decline, it will be from record high levels.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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