ACT Research: Supply Chain Concerns Real and Tangible for Used Truck Market

Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) increased 5% month-over-month, but dropped 25% y/y in September. Through the first nine months of the year, activity is 3% higher compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.

16Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included month-over-month comparisons for September 2021, which showed that average prices rose 5%, as average miles gained 3% and age fell 4%, compared to August. Compared to September of 2020, average price was 73% higher, with average miles down 1% and age up 3%. On a year-to-date basis, average price is 48% above its year-ago level for the first nine months of 2020, with average miles down 3% and age 1% lower on a year-to-date basis.

ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.

Used 10.18.21According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Preliminary same dealer sales bounced back in September, but are lagging behind September 2020. The atypical sequential gain was insufficient to stop the longer-term slide, which has trimmed ytd growth.”

Regarding the impact of supply-chain constraints on the US used truck market, Tam said, “The well-publicized, ongoing supply chain concerns are having a very real and tangible impact on the flow of trades into the secondary market, severely limiting used truck sales at a time when demand is through the roof. And while no one knows for certain when the constraints will be relieved, it is not likely to happen soon or suddenly, leaving sufficient time to adjust.” He concluded, “Because the law of supply and demand has not and cannot be repealed, used truck prices are left with no alternative but to continue climbing. And that is exactly what they did in September.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

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