ACT Research: Why We Continue to Expect a Recession and Lower 2023 Class 8 Build

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that the longer inflation remains elevated, the more aggressively the Fed will respond with higher interest rates. This increases the chances of a sharper decline in economic activity, and 1) results in fewer commercial vehicles (CVs) required to facilitate this subdued activity and 2) will likely exacerbate downward pressure on spot and contract rates, adversely impacting carrier profitability.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “We are already seeing the slowest y/y growth in the money supply (M2) since 1995, and that metric will turn negative in coming months.” He continued,Recent economic data are inconclusive: the labor market continues to add jobs at a pace that implies too-hot wage inflation pressures, but the most recent core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading indicates inflation may be moderating.”

“We are already seeing the slowest y/y growth in the money supply (M2) since 1995, and that metric will turn negative in coming months.” -Kenny Vieth, President & Senior AnalystVieth concluded, “It is our view the Fed will continue on its course of tighter monetary policy until the data signal unambiguously that inflation is moderating, as still deep-pocketed consumers and businesses drive demand for labor in structurally constrained markets.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at

ACT’s 68th Seminar is scheduled for February 21-23, 2023. The focus will be the continuous development of decarbonization and technological advancement in on-highway transportation. Each event ACT shares its best-in-class data and forecast in presentations while featuring guest speakers to expand upon topics of interest for the benefit of attendees. More information about Seminar 68 DRIVING DECARBONIZATION: THE FUTURE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLES is forthcoming. Click HERE to register now.

With numerous technology applications and a current lack of mass adoption, the path to understanding the autonomous technology horizon is quality economic modeling. ACT Research, the gold standard in market data, forecasting, and total-cost-of-ownership development for the commercial vehicle market, has developed DRIVING AUTOMATION, a report aggregating relevant market information, diving deep into autonomous models, and presenting a technology adoption rate forecast over a 20-year horizon. To learn more about DRIVING AUTOMATION, click HERE.

For businesses working to understand the future of decarbonized powertrains across Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research is continuing to develop and report groundbreaking analyses of various propulsion systems' evolution of battery and fuel cell electric and hydrogen internal combustion, government regulations and subsidies, electric, hydrogen, natural gas, and gasoline supply, and infrastructure as well as a TCO model of 50 unique vehicle applications across North America, Europe, and China through 2040. To join ACT Research in this effort as we work to develop our third edition of CHARGING FORWARD, a decarbonization forecast thru 2040, and to learn more, click HERE.


Click below to access:

More information about ACT’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest.

Information about other ACT Research publications and services.

November’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest press release.

ACT’s In the News page.

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