The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index, with August data, retrenched to contraction in all categories, after the large and partly anomalous improvement in July. The Volume Index pulled back to 48.0 in August, from 56.7 in July (SA). The August Pricing Index, at 47.1 (SA), also returned to negative territory, after stabilizing to 50.3 in July.
The average price of total used Class 8 trucks in August dipped 1% y/y, the first such decline since January 2018. Month-over-month, prices fell 3%, but longer-term, remained 7% higher year-to-date. Same-dealer sales rose 9% in August compared to July, but contracted 19% versus the first eight months of 2018, according to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research. The report also indicated used Class 8 average miles increased slightly month-over-month, up 2%, and were down 1% year-to-date, while average age rose 1% compared to July and 4% on a year-to-date basis.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry trucking data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 truck models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Dealers are reporting that used truck sales are not in the tank, but the prices for trucks have fallen and inventories are growing,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “This is not unexpected, as sales of new trucks have been barreling along, leading to many trade trucks coming to dealers.” Tam concluded, “With lower truck values and growing inventories, many dealers have become much more conservative about what they will pay for trade-ins, while the rapid decrease in used truck values has caught some customers by surprise, as customers became used to receiving more for trucks in the last two years than what is normal.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
New US trailer orders of 14.8k were up 7% month-over-month, and after accounting for cancellations, net orders of 10.6k hit their second sequential increase in nine months, rising 2% from July, but down 72% compared to August of 2018. Year-to-date, however, net trailer orders are 51% below last year, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report.
ACT’s preliminary estimate for August 2019 net trailer orders is 10,500 units. Final volume will be available later this month.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Report, economic reports over the past month have more often risen above consensus than fallen below it, but it is premature to declare an end to freight market weakness.
Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) fell 1% month-over-month in August, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research. Additionally, the report indicated that longer-term comparisons yielded a 25% decline compared to August 2018, as well as a year-to-date drop of 18%, the 10th consecutive contraction for both time period comparisons.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the key risk to all commercial vehicle market forecasts remains the on-again trade war with China, but well-positioned consumers are keeping the US economy out of the ditch.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, expectations for the Class 8 and trailer markets anticipate an immanent pullback in build rates, as market conditions continue to deteriorate.
ACT Research released the September installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.
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Hear from the most accurate economic forecaster Sam Kahan of ACT Research