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Freight Forecast: Bottoming Process Accelerates, But Latent Capacity Puts Rate Rebound At Risk

Posted by Jennifer McNealy on Jun 11, 2020 11:02:32 AM

ACT Research released the June installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report. This monthly 56-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides three-year forecasts for volumes and contract rates for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal sectors of the transportation industry. For the truckload spot market, the report forecasts rates for the next 12-15 months. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the future of freight rates, helping companies across the supply chain plan their business with greater visibility and less uncertainty

Used 06.12.20

Used 06.12.20 (1)Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, said, “Freight market stabilization progressed this month with a strong rebound in spot rates. The number of trucks parked in April was likely into the six-figure range, and the increased unemployment benefits incentivized drivers not to return to work in the near-term.”


“However, capacity tightness because of too few drivers is much easier to solve than tightness because of too few trucks. With record numbers of qualified drivers looking for work, we expect the current imbalance to be resolved relatively quickly, which will press rates lower as seasonal strength fades in the coming months.”

Freight Forecast PR Chart 6-11-20

He concluded, “Thereafter, we see the Class 8 tractor capacity balance tightening for the first time in two years, as this latent capacity is absorbed. As a result of the equipment supply shock from the pandemic, our confidence in a significant freight rate cycle on the longer-term horizon is reinforced.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 63rd seminar is scheduled for August 11-13, 2020. Focused on the road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the event will feature dealer, alternative power, and economic panels, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American commercial vehicle markets and the pending impact of alternative power on the market in the near future. Both in-person and livestream options are available for those who wish to participate.

Click below to: 

Access Seminar information.

Get information about ACT’s Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK, please click here.

Access information about ACT’s freight-related databases.

Access May's Freight Forecast Press Release. 

Access In the News Page.

Topics: freight, freight forecast, freight rate, logistics, Press Releases, supply chain, truck freight, north american trucking, commercial truck and trailer, transportation industry news, trucking, intermodal, truck freight rates, demand planning, us freight, commercial freight shipping, last mile delivery, freight rates

About ACT Research

We're the leading publisher of industry data, market analysis, and economic forecasting services for the commercial vehicle and transportation industries.

2019 Lawrence R. Klein Award Winner: Most Accurate Economic Forecast 2015-2019

  Partner to LMC Automotive and the Chinese State Information Center

  Contributor to the Blue Chip Financial and Wall Street Journal Consensus Economic Forecast


 

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