ACT Research released the October installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors. After a less negative spot environment over the summer, ACT now expects excess capacity to exert more downward pressure on truckload spot rates. ACT Research also introduced its Q3’20 truckload spot rate forecasts in this month’s report.
Want a cradle-to-grave, tactical look at where the industry is going to be in the next 3-6 months?
ACT Research's State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles report is just that, an in-depth look at all things pertinent to the trucking and transportation markets, including commercial vehicle sales data. In addition to the monthly data and market indicators, the OEM's provide six-month build plans for both medium duty trucks and heavy duty trucks. ACT Research also breaks out the backlog regarding the build timing of the units on order, giving an alternative look at the strength of the market.
Topics: freight, transportation, logistics, shipping, class 8 trucks, supply chain, medium duty truck, commercial vehicle sales data, truck freight, north american trucking, class 8 truck, american truck and trailer, commercial truck and trailer, transportation industry news, trucking, HeavyDuty, semitruck, heavy duty truck
The market and business indicators used in commercial vehicle forecasting and database building by ACT Research include new and net orders, cancellations, backlog, build, inventory, factory shipments, and retail sales. ACT Research has defined these indicators in more detail below to help connect the dots between your company definitions and those of ACT Research. These indicators and more information on the market are included in ACT's N.A. CV OUTLOOK and ACT's State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles reports. These best-in-class publications provide valuable data and analysis to the market allowing companies to make better informed decisions for their futures.
Topics: freight, logistics, class 8 trucks, supply chain, medium duty truck, commercial vehicle sales data, truck market, truck freight, north american trucking, class 8 truck, american truck and trailer, commercial truck and trailer, transportation industry news, trucking, heavy duty truck
In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that the heavy truck and trailer markets, and increasingly the medium duty market, are heading for corrections in 2020, even as the slow growth US economic outlook remains largely unchanged, aside from concerns about trade and tariffs. The key driver of the near to mid-term outlook is the US consumer, who remains well positioned to keep the economy out of the ditch.
Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 12,600 units in September, up 13% from August, while Classes 5-7 orders fell 9.4% m/m, to 17,300 units. Note that these numbers are preliminary. Complete industry data for September, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-October.
According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, the Class 8 market is moving from 2019 peak activity in sales and build into a significant correction next year. The medium duty market remained soft in July, solidifying the thought that the market has passed its cyclical peak, with build and sales both sequentially lower.
In the second half of 2019, amid the China-US trade war and deceleration of China’s real estate market, the economy is expected to slow, with estimated GDP growth dropping to 6.2% in Q3’19 and 6.1% in Q4’19. The domestic demand for heavy trucks fell nearly 29% y/y, while the tractor segment increased almost 30%, and demand for medium trucks ended 2019’s second quarter down 41% compared to Q2’18.
The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index, with August data, retrenched to contraction in all categories, after the large and partly anomalous improvement in July. The Volume Index pulled back to 48.0 in August, from 56.7 in July (SA). The August Pricing Index, at 47.1 (SA), also returned to negative territory, after stabilizing to 50.3 in July.
The average price of total used Class 8 trucks in August dipped 1% y/y, the first such decline since January 2018. Month-over-month, prices fell 3%, but longer-term, remained 7% higher year-to-date. Same-dealer sales rose 9% in August compared to July, but contracted 19% versus the first eight months of 2018, according to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research. The report also indicated used Class 8 average miles increased slightly month-over-month, up 2%, and were down 1% year-to-date, while average age rose 1% compared to July and 4% on a year-to-date basis.
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry trucking data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 truck models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers, to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
“Dealers are reporting that used truck sales are not in the tank, but the prices for trucks have fallen and inventories are growing,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “This is not unexpected, as sales of new trucks have been barreling along, leading to many trade trucks coming to dealers.” Tam concluded, “With lower truck values and growing inventories, many dealers have become much more conservative about what they will pay for trade-ins, while the rapid decrease in used truck values has caught some customers by surprise, as customers became used to receiving more for trucks in the last two years than what is normal.”
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
New US trailer orders of 14.8k were up 7% month-over-month, and after accounting for cancellations, net orders of 10.6k hit their second sequential increase in nine months, rising 2% from July, but down 72% compared to August of 2018. Year-to-date, however, net trailer orders are 51% below last year, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report.