According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Report, Class 8 market-leading indicators continue to erode, in concert with deteriorating freight volumes and rates, even as mid and downstream data points remain robust.
With the much anticipated hours-of-service proposed rule changes announced, ACT Research team breaks down the 5 take-aways as well how this will impact carriers.
According to ACT Research’s (ACT) latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, current data and anecdotes make a strong case that the heavy duty vehicle markets are at the edge of the precipice.
ACT Research released the August installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.
In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research noted that the heavy truck and trailer industries are heading for a market correction in 2020, even as the US economic picture remains largely unchanged, aside from concerns about trade and tariffs. The key driver of the near to mid-term outlook is the US consumer, who remains well positioned to keep the economy out of the ditch, even as key freight-generating sectors of the economy take a pause.
The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index, June data, showed nearly across-the-board declines, with capacity again the lone exception. The Volume Index dropped further into negative territory, falling to 43.2 (SA) in June, from 46.7 in May. The June Pricing Index, at 43.8 (SA), recovered a good bit of last month’s sharp decline, up from 38.8 in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest in survey history.
ACT Research released the July installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.
ACT has been involved in the freight sector for decades, but for the past year we have been investing time and energy in developing the ACT's Freight Forecast report. The report analyzes data from around the freight sector, focusing on the links between the equipment manufacturing side of the equation and freight rates. The report is for any transportation stakeholder who needs to understand where rates are heading, when and why. With help from all members of the ACT team, we have built a model that forecasts the future of freight rates using ACT's historical data on truck production, our TL and LTL Carrier databases, as well as key leading indicators developed for this report.
The report addresses the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal sectors of the freight market, all targeted at understanding of future rates. As the report has been developed, we've tested and refined the outputs to provide the best possible information to help businesses make informed decisions. Over the past year we’ve built a freight model using several regression and population models all working together, which drives our contract rate and volume forecasts. For our spot rate forecasts though, we use a separate model based on our Spot Leading Indicator, which was developed over a year ago.
- February 2018 Outlook Report: “Did the spot market just peak? Spot Leading Indicator predicts 25%-30% y/y increases through March/April, down from 31% in February and 32% in January.”
The historical truckload cycle gives insights into the current truckload environment and what to anticipate as we measure demand and supply of the freight market.
The Classic Cycle of the U.S. Truckload Sector